The overall economics or viability of a refinery depends on the interaction of three key components: the choice of crude oil used (crude slates), the complexity of the refining equipment (refinery configuration) and the desired type and quality of merchandise produced (product slate). Refinery utilization charges and environmental considerations additionally influence refinery economics.
Utilizing costlier crude oil (lighter, sweeter) requires much less refinery upgrading however provides of light, sweet crude oil are reducing and the differential between heavier and more bitter crudes is rising. Utilizing cheaper heavier crude oil means more investment in upgrading processes. Prices and payback durations for refinery processing units should be weighed towards anticipated crude oil prices and the projected differential between light and heavy crude oil prices.
Crude Oil Input
Crude oil is the first input into the petroleum refining industry. While Canada is a big and growing internet oil exporter, crude oil imports satisfy greater than half of home refinery demand. The transportation costs related to shifting crude oil from the oil fields in Western Canada to the consuming areas within the east and the larger alternative of crude qualities make it extra economic for some refineries to use imported crude oil. Therefore, Canada’s oil financial system is now a dual market. Refineries in Western Canada run domestically produced crude oil, refineries in Quebec and the japanese provinces run primarily imported crude oil, whereas refineries in Ontario run a mixture of each imported and domestically produced crude oil. In more moderen years, japanese refineries have begun operating Canadian crude from east coast offshore manufacturing.
Whatever the source of crude oil, the worth is set on the earth market and both imported and home crude oil is priced in response to the availability/demand balance and pricing dynamics on the world oil market. On this respect, Canadian refiners are “price takersand have little or no affect on the worth they pay for crude oil. Using dearer crude oil (lighter, sweeter) requires much less refinery upgrading but provides of light, sweet crude oil are lowering and the differential between heavier and extra sour crudes is increasing. Utilizing cheaper heavier crude oil means extra funding in upgrading processes. Prices and payback intervals for refinery processing models should be weighed towards anticipated crude oil costs and the projected differential between gentle and heavy crude oil costs.
Crude slates and refinery configurations must take into account the kind of merchandise that may in the end be needed within the marketplace. The quality specs of the ultimate merchandise are also increasingly essential as environmental necessities turn into extra stringent.
Crude Slates
Several types of crude oil yield a distinct mixture of products relying on the crude oil’s natural qualities. Crude oil sorts are usually differentiated by their density (measured as API gravity) and their sulphur content material. Crude oil with a low API gravity is taken into account a heavy crude oil and usually has the next sulphur content and a bigger yield of decrease-valued products. Subsequently, the lower the API of a crude oil, the lower the worth it has to a refiner as it would either require more processing or yield a higher proportion of lower-valued by-merchandise equivalent to heavy gas oil, which often sells for lower than crude oil.
Crude oil with a excessive sulphur content known as a bitter crude while sweet crude has a low sulphur content. Sulphur is an undesirable characteristic of petroleum merchandise, particularly in transportation fuels. It will probably hinder the environment friendly operation of some emission control technologies and, when burned in a combustion engine, is launched into the atmosphere where it could possibly form sulphur dioxide. With more and more restrictive sulphur limits on transportation fuels, candy crude oil sells at a premium. Bitter crude oil requires extra severe processing to take away the sulphur. Refiners are typically keen to pay extra for light, low sulphur crude oil.
Most refineries in Western Canada and Ontario had been designed to process the light sweet crude oil that is produced in Western Canada. Unlike main refineries within the U.S., Canadian refineries in these regions have been slower to reconfigure their operations to course of decrease cost, much less desirable crude oils, instead selecting to rely extensively on the plentiful, domestically produced, mild, candy crudes. As long as these lighter crudes had been obtainable, refining economics were inadequate to warrant new investment in heavy oil conversion capability.
Nevertheless, with rising oil sands manufacturing and the declining manufacturing of standard light sweet crudes, refineries in Western Canada and Ontario have began to make the investment required to process the increasing provide of heavier crudes. A lot of this funding by the large integrated oil companies (companies which might be concerned in each the production of crude oil and the manufacturing and distribution of petroleum merchandise) is related to ensuring a market for their rising oil sands manufacturing.
In Western Canada and Ontario, almost 50% of the crude oil processed by refiners is typical light, candy crude oil and another 25% is prime quality synthetic crude oil. Synthetic crude is a gentle crude oil that is derived by upgrading oil sands. Most of the remaining crude oil processed by these refineries is heavy, sour crude. The crude slate is predicted to change significantly in the years forward as refiners improve their capacity to course of heavy crude oil and lower high quality synthetic crudes.
Refineries in Atlantic Canada and Quebec are dependent on imported crudes and are likely to course of a extra diverse crude slate than their counterparts in Western Canada and Ontario. These refiners have the capability to purchase crude oil produced virtually wherever on the earth and therefore have incredible flexibility in their crude buying decisions. Approximately 1/3 of crude processed in Japanese Canada and Quebec is conventional, mild candy crude and one other 1/3 is medium sulphur, heavy crude oil. The remaining 1/three is a mix of sour mild, bitter heavy and really heavy crude oil. The crude slate in Japanese Canada is expected to stay much more static than that in Western Canada and Ontario, as these refiners will not be constrained by the quality or quantity of home crude production.
Refinery Configuration
A refiner’s choice of crude oil can be influenced by the type of processing models on the refinery. Refineries fall into three broad classes. The best is a topping plant, which consists solely of a distillation unit and probably a catalytic reformer to provide octane. Yields from this plant would most closely mirror the natural yields from the crude processed. Sometimes only condensates or light sweet crude can be processed at this kind of facility except markets for heavy gas oil (HFO) are readily and economically available. Asphalt plants are topping refineries that run heavy crude oil because they’re solely concerned about producing asphalt.
The following level of refining is called a cracking refinery. This refinery takes the gas oil portion from the crude distillation unit (a stream heavier than diesel gas, but lighter than HFO) and breaks it down further into gasoline and distillate parts using catalysts, excessive temperature and/or strain.
The final level of refining is the coking refinery. This refinery processes residual gas, the heaviest materials from the crude unit and thermally cracks it into lighter product in a coker or a hydrocraker. The addition of a fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) or a hydro cracker considerably will increase the yield of higher-valued merchandise like gasoline and diesel oil from a barrel of crude, permitting a refinery to process cheaper, heavier crude whereas producing an equal or greater volume of high-valued merchandise.
Hydrotreating is a course of used to remove sulphur from completed products. As the requirement to supply ultra low sulphur products will increase, additional hydrotreating capability is being added to refineries. Refineries that currently have giant hydrotreating capability have the power to process crude oil with the next sulphur content.
Canada has primarily cracking refineries. These refineries run a mix of light and heavy crude oils to satisfy the product slate required by Canadian consumers. Historically, the abundance of domestically produced gentle candy crude oils and a higher demand for distillate products, corresponding to heating oil, than in some jurisdictions decreased the necessity for upgrading capability in Canada. Nonetheless, in more recent years, the availability of light sweet crude has declined and newer sources of crude oil tend to be heavier. Most of the Canadian refineries at the moment are being geared up with upgraders to handle the heavier grades of crude oil presently being produced.
Product Slates
Refinery configuration can be influenced by the product demand in every region. Refineries produce a wide range of products including: propane, butane, petrochemical feedstock, gasolines (naphtha specialties, aviation gasoline, motor gasoline), distillates (jet fuels, diesel, stove oil, kerosene, furnace oil), heavy gas oil, lubricating oils, waxes, asphalt and still gas. Nationally, gasoline accounts for about forty% of demand with distillate fuels representing about one third of product sales and heavy gas oil accounting for less than eight percent of gross sales.
Complete petroleum product demand is distributed nearly equally throughout the regions, with Atlantic/Quebec, Ontario and the West each accounting for about one third of total sales. However, the mixture of products varies quite significantly among the areas.
In the Atlantic provinces, the place furnace oil (light heating oil) is the primary supply of house heating, distillate fuels make up 40% of product demand, and heavy gas oil, used to generate electricity, accounts for one more 24%. Gasoline gross sales account for less than 30% of product demand.
In Quebec, where natural gas and hydroelectricity are prevalent, distillate gas has a 34% share of sales and gasoline is about 40%. Similarly, in Ontario, gasoline gross sales outpace distillate gross sales and account for more than 45% of complete product demand, with distillates at lower than 30%.
In Western Canada, agricultural use is one among the primary drivers behind distillate demand and gasoline and distillate every account for about 40% of whole petroleum product gross sales. These regional variations in product demand have influenced the configurations of the refineries in every space.
By comparability, in the U.S., the demand for gasoline is way bigger than distillate demand and, subsequently, refiners configure their installations to maximize gasoline production. Gasoline sales account for nearly 50% of demand while distillate gross sales account for less than 30% of product demand. In a number of Western European nations, most notably Germany and France, policies exist that encourage the usage of diesel engines making a a lot stronger distillate element. Gasoline accounts for lower than 20% of petroleum product gross sales in Europe.
The US refineries are configured to course of a big share of heavy, high sulphur crude and to produce large portions of gasoline, and low amounts of heavy gas oil. U.S. refiners have invested in additional complicated refinery configurations, which permit them to make use of cheaper feedstock and have a higher processing capability.
Canada’s refineries wouldn’t have the excessive conversion capability of the US refineries, because, on common, they process a lighter, sweeter crude slate. Canadian refineries additionally face the next distillate demand, as a percent of crude, than these found in the U.S. so gasoline yields should not as high as those within the US, but are still considerably increased than European yields.
The relationship between gasoline and distillate gross sales may also create challenges for refiners. A refinery has a limited vary of flexibility in setting the gasoline to distillate production ratio. Past a certain point, distillate manufacturing can only be increased by also rising gasoline production. Because of this, Europe is a significant gasoline exporter, primarily to the U.S.
Refinery Utilization
One other vital component of refining economics is the utilization charge, or how effectively the refining advanced is operating. The Canadian refining sector has undergone significant rationalization in the last three many years. Within the early 1970s, there were forty refineries in Canada. Since that time a number of components have contributed to a significant rationalization of firm operations. The oil price shocks in 1973 and 1979 led to enhancements in the efficiency of automobiles and to gas switching from oil to natural gas and electricity. This curbed the demand for petroleum merchandise and resulted in a substantial surplus of refining capacity. The spare capability resulted in increased competitors amongst refiners, which further eroded refining margins. Much less environment friendly, smaller refiners had been closed, typically in favor of new bigger amenities.
Weak financial circumstances within the early 1980s put extra strain on the industry to rationalize their operations, resulting in a significant variety of refinery closures. In the present day there are 19 refineries producing petroleum merchandise in Canada. Nevertheless, due to expansions at the remaining refineries over the past decade, present refining capacity in Canada is larger than it was in the 1970s.
In recent years, progress within the demand for petroleum merchandise has led to an enchancment in capacity utilization, rising operating effectivity and lowering prices per unit of output. As a result, refinery utilization rates have been above 90% nationally for six of the last ten years. A utilization price of about 95% is taken into account optimum as it permits for normal shut downs required for maintenance and seasonal adjustments.
Refinery capacity is based on the designed dimension of the crude distillation unit(s) of a refinery (often referred to as nameplate capability). Sometimes, via upgrades or de-bottlenecking procedures, refineries can process extra crude than the nameplate measurement of the distillation unit would indicate. In such circumstances, a refinery is ready to realize a utilization price better than one hundred p.c for short periods of time.
Environmental Initiatives
Not all investment decisions are pushed by refinery economics. Refiners additionally make investment choices due to voluntary actions or legislative and regulatory requirements. In recent times, governments and business have directed considerable effort in direction of lowering the environmental affect of burning fossil fuels. Many of the initiatives have been aimed toward offering ‘cleaner´ fuels for Canadians. Petroleum refining is a really sophisticated and capital-intensive industry. New environmental laws require trade to make additional investments to fulfill the more stringent standards.
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